My trendline says I'm stable; the prescription says keep going

53m ago 22 views 1 post

I keep a 28-day rolling average in a sheet that's now around 150 rows, plus columns for appetite on a 1–5 scale and hours slept. Since early March that average has stayed inside a 1.4-lb band — tighter, honestly, than it moved during any loss phase. The sheet is excellent at telling me I'm stable. It's useless at telling me whether stable is a state I'm holding or a state that's holding me.

The mildly contrarian part: I don't think a log can answer the question everyone asks. It shows what happened. It can't show the counterfactual. Every time I try to model "what if I weren't doing this," I end up inventing the numbers I want and then citing them like evidence.

What's actually been informative: protein floor, whether I eat before 10am, and how many nights land under six hours of sleep. Those three move together in ways weight never does.

Anyone else reach the point where the data stopped being a decision tool and turned into a mirror?