My 10-day average crossed the forty-pound mark today

I logged 203.8 this morning, which is 40.1 under my 243.9 start. It took 31 weeks, but the shape matters more: 1.62 lb/week for the first eight weeks, then 0.54 for six weeks of late dinners and missed walks, then back to 1.1 after I got boring again. My 10-day rolling average is what I trust; the daily number is noisy and always has been. I'm not throwing a party. My brain still clocks me as the 243 version, and I keep bracing for a snapback. The waist tape went from 44.5 to 37.25 inches, which is the number that actually feels real. For the other spreadsheet people: do you count a milestone off the daily weigh-in, the weekly average, or the monthly trend? I'm deciding whether to move my goal row now or wait until the average holds below 202 for 14 days.