My 28-day slope just crossed the line I drew in January

I built a tab with a 28-day moving average and a separate 7-day one, mostly because the daily number is noise. This morning the 28-day line hit 214.6, which is 0.4 under the checkpoint I penciled in back in January. Not the final destination, but the first one I actually wrote down. The weird part: my weekly average is still bouncing between 215.8 and 216.4, so if I only looked at Sundays I'd think nothing changed. The trendline says otherwise. I've been logging protein, steps, and whether I ate after 9 p.m.; the only column that correlates with the slope is the late-night one, which is annoying because I wanted it to be steps. I'm not throwing a party over 0.4, but I am updating the cell color. Question for the data people: do you trust a 28-day slope more than a weekly average, or am I just dressing up impatience as math?