Nine days from "label created" to actual movement, then three more parked in a customs queue. I've started reading delivery estimates like a weather forecast: fine for vibes, useless for planning.
What I do now is boring but it works. Order roughly three weeks before I need anything. Keep one unopened box as buffer stock. Log arrival dates in the same sheet as everything else, because a delay I didn't record is a delay I'll panic about twice.
The buffer is the whole trick. Without it, a two-day customs hiccup turns into a scramble and I make decisions I'd rather not make. With it, the delay is just a row of data.
Last four arrivals averaged 14 days. Worst was 22, best was 8. That spread is too wide to plan around, so I stopped planning around it.
Are you all seeing a similar range, or is my routing just unlucky?