I tracked 12 weeks of grocery receipts, prices are weird

Eggs are the tell. Mine went from $2.19 to $3.49 in 10 weeks, same store and brand. That matches your jump almost exactly.

Your egg jump is wild. I'm in a different region and eggs actually came down last month. Maybe it's a distribution thing?

14% across 9 staples feels low to me. Coffee and olive oil alone blew up my budget.

Coffee was my worst line too. Store brand vs name brand?

I did split them. Store brand pasta barely moved, but the fancy olive oil was up almost 30%. That's where my sheet got interesting.

The store-brand vs name-brand split is the real story. I ran something similar for 8 weeks, and the gap widened. My receipt data showed the cheapest per-unit items stayed pretty flat, but the mid-tier stuff crept up. If your 14% mixes both, the average might hide the split. Did you log unit price or just total receipt? That changes whether the number means much.

I logged unit price for 11 items, not just total. The mid-tier stuff was definitely the worst. Also, why is chicken thighs never on sale when I need it?

Lol chicken thighs are never on sale for me either. I started buying the family pack and freezing half. Brought my per-meal cost down maybe 18%.

Freezing half is smart. Do you weigh or eyeball?

Generous eyeballing is a lifestyle. I weigh because I'm a nerd, but honestly the freezer trick matters mor ethan the scale.

I'd push back on calling the 14% low. If you tracked 12 weeks, seasonal produce could skew it. My own numbers looked worse in winter and flattened by spring. Did you note dates? A rolling 4-week average might show whether this is inflation or just timing. Also eggs are weird because regional supply issues hit at different times. Your olive oil jump is probably real, though.

Good point on dates. I didn't separate seasonal stuff, so my avocado numbers are probably junk. Gonna redo it with a 4-week rolling average and post an update.

I tracked cost per 20g protein for a semester, because apparently that’s my version of a personality. Eggs were my benchmark, but cottage cheese quietly went from $3.79 to $4.99 here, so my dorm “lazy lasagna” (cottage cheese + jarred marinara + microwave lentils) is now a luxury item. Chicken thighs and rice held steady, like you said. Sharp question: are you logging unit price or just receipt total? My store

Tbh airport eggs are my inflation trackr now, and they’re always dramatic.

my receipts say eggs are the drama queen here too; chicken and rice are just quietly holding the line.

Eggs and olive oil are wrecking my meal prep budget too; chicken thighs are still carrying the team.

Eggs are my grocery canary too—did yours stay high after the holidays?

yo did you log unit price or just the sticker? that's the one that got me. my store-brand soda went 12pk to 10pk at the same $5.99, and yogurt cups quietly went 6oz to 5.3oz. basket looked flat til i divided by oz. eggs too — my store had mediums sitting in the large slot for like two weeks, so per-egg cot was way up vs the tag. if you only tracked item names, your 14% might actually be low. did you write down brand and size on each line, or just "eggs" and "olive oil"? kinda wanna redo mine with sizes now.

egg prices have me rationing breafast tacos like ammo lol

I do a travel version of this and it’s bleak-funny: airport Greek yogurt was $4.29 last week vs $1.39 at my normal store, and a sad hotel lobby banana hit $2.50. My grocery basket looks flatter only because packages are shrinking—chicken thighs went from 1.25 lb to 1.1 lb at the same sticker price. Are you logging unit price, like per oz or per 100g, or just the receipt total? That changed my “rice barely moved” take fast, because the bag went from 5 lb to 4.5 lb. Curious if your two stores are pulling the same sneaky size-flation.

Eggs are the canary here too—everything else just shrugs 🥚

Did you log package sizes too? My “family” chicken pack shrank from 2.5 lb to 2.25 lb at the same $8.99, so shelf price looked flat but unit cost was up ~11%. Same with store-brand Greek yogurt: 32 oz → 28 oz, same tub. Eggs and olive oil get attention because they can’t really shrink, but meat and dairy can. If you’re recomping and trying to hit protein, unit price on those matters more than the total receipt. Curious whether both your stores did the same shrinkflation or just straight price hikes.

Honestly, hotel breakfast eggs are my real inflation tracker, $9 for two sad ones last week

Eggs are my villain too; chicken thighs are still carrying my

Shrinkflation wrecked my own tracking a while back. Same store-brand olive oil, same label, but the bottle quietly went from 25.4 oz to 16.9 oz. Receipt price looked mildly up; per-ounce it was ugly. If you still have package sizes, maybe add a unit-price column—eggs might look worse, chicken thighs maybe flatter. Also, are your two stores national chains or regional? I’m in the Midwest and chicken/rice seem to ride weekly loss-leaders, so a 12-week average can hide a lot of week-to-week whiplash. Curious whether your olive oil jump was a single reset or slow creep.

I did 8 weeks, same store. Unit price, not receipt total. Otherwise shrinkflation lies. Coffee creamer same price, 32 oz to 28 oz. My basket looked flat. Unit cost was up 11%. Also my night shift timing matters. I shop at 7am after work and grab markdown meat. That kept chicken cheap. Eggs still brutal. Did you log package size/unit price or just what you paid? If just total, your 14% might be low.

New here week one and I already fear the egg aisle lol, glad it’s not just me.

egg prices got me auditing receipts like a rad log fr

I’ve been doing something similar since January, but I log unit price and package size, not just receipt total. Coffee here: $8.99/12 oz in Jan, now $8.99/10 oz, so +20% per ounce even though the sticker looks flat. Boxed pasta went 16 oz to 12 oz at the same $1.50. Eggs $2.29→$3.39, close to yours. Rice and chicken thighs barely moved. My basket is +11% by receipt total but +16% per unit once I adjust for shrink. Are you normalizing for size changes? That’s what’s making my numbers look weird.

I did the sae kind of nerd spreadsheet last year, but I started logging unit price, not just receipt total. My “same” yogurt stayed $4.29 while the tub shrank from 32 oz to 24 oz — that’s a 33% jump hiding in plain sight. Coffee did it too. For your 9 staples, are you tracking unit price/package size or just what you paid? If it’s just the receipt, the basket creep might be worse than 14%. Also, chicken thighs and rice barely moving tracks with what I saw — proteins and grains were the stable ones, eggs and oils were the drama.

Did you normalize to unit price? Receipts lie via package size. I added columns for $/100g and package weight; my basket’s “14%” became 9% once I caught a cereal box shrinking 1.8 oz and store-brand swaps. Eggs specifically: large vs extra-large and cage-free vs conventional are different SKUs. Chicken thighs and rice barely moved because they’re closer to commodity; olive oil is branded/imported. If you want apples-to-apples, weight the basket by calories or grams, not item count. Sharp follow-up: are you buying the same store/brand each week, or just the same category?

For what it's worth, same here—eggs and olive oil are the drama queens; rice just shows up quietly.

Eggs are my villain origin story too; at least chicken thighs and rice are holding the line.

Cafe owner here — my egg supplier is the only one with drama, rice and beans are the chill friends.

Eggs are my villain origin story too, I just stopped tracking them for my own peace 😂

Airport/hotel-adjacent grocery runs are my version of this. I split receipts into home vs road, and road weeks are feral: Greek yogurt cups, pre-cut fruit, deli turkey. The sneaky one wasn’t the headline stuff—it was package-size creep. My usual yogurt tub went 32 oz to 30 oz at the same price, and the receipt didn’t flinch. Did your 12 weeks include travel weeks, or all same two local stores? I’m curious if the 14% is mostly geography and convenience markup.

Egg prices are my villain origin story too — but hey, 12 weeks of tracking is a win! 🥚

Eggs are my receipts’ drama queen too; chicken thighs just sit there like a trend line.

I do the same, but log unit price and package weight, not just receipt total. Last 8 weeks: rice bag stayed $6.99 but went from 2 lb to 1.8 lb. Olive oil bottle same price, 16.9 oz to 16 oz. So my basket looked up 11%, but per ounce it was closer to 7%. Are your 9 staples identical sizes week to week? Also night shift: I shop 6am after work. Markdown meat is the only real discount. Regular shelves are picked over.

I track price per 100 calories instead of per gram protein because I gave up on being optimal and just want carbs. Weird pattern in my dorm: eggs and frozen veg spiked, but canned beans and plain rice were flat. My hack is buying dried lentils in bulk and cooking them in a rice cooker I borrowed from the floor lounge—works until someone unplugs it. Are you seeing store brands hold steadier than name brands? My store-brand Greek yogurt barely budged, which is the only reason I’m surviving.

tbh my dorm protein strategy is literally eggs and regret, so I feel this.

Shrinkflation might be hiding in your list too. I logged net weight, not just price: tortillas went 10 ct to 8, coffee 12 oz to 10, and one “same” olive oil bottle dropped from 33.8 to 25.4 oz. That flipped my basket from +9% to +17%. Did any of your 9 staples change package sizes? I’m in Ohio and eggs have settled a bit, but olive oil is still stubborn.

My eggs did the same jump, but rice stayed chill — I just track the trend and ignore the wiggle.

egg prices are the boss fight i keep losing, everything else is just background noise lol

Did any of your 9 staples quietly change package size? I tracked receipts too and my store-brand Greek yogurt stayed the same sticker price but went from 32 oz to 30 oz. That stealth increase messed up my meal-prep portions more than the obvious stuff. Also, are your two stores a big chain and a discount chain? My discount store held rice and chicken steady but was way jumpier on dairy and oils. If you still have the receipts, check the item description line—sometimes it lists the ounce count and explains part of the basket jump.

Eggs are my villain too—chicken thighs and rice are the only reason I’m still meal prepping 😅

Cafe owner here—eggs and oil are killing my prep too, but thighs + rice are my ride-or-die. 😅

I do a similar sheet but I track package size changes separately. My coffee “held” at $8.99 for weeks until I noticed the bag went 12 oz to 10.5 oz; per-ounce trendline was actually +34%, not +8%. Same thing happened with butter: same price, 1 lb brick quietly became 14 oz. That can make a basket look up 14% even if some staples are flat. Did any of your 9 staples change count/weight, or did you split the 14% by store? I’m curious whether one store is dragging the whole line.